Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson and Benicio del Toro as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos in a scene from "One Battle After Another." (Photo courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures)
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams”
Will win: “One Battle After Another”
Michelle’s Musings: I’m on the fence on this one because I did like “Sinners,” but I don’t think the Academy will go for a Black vampire movie. “Bugonia” was just odd, but good. I loved “Sentimental Value” but it doesn’t have a chance.
Michael B. Jordan as Elijah "Smoke" Moore and Michael B. Jordan as Elias "Stack" Moore in a scene from "Sinners." (Photo courtesy of Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.)
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”)
Will win: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Michelle’s Musings: Timothee Chalamet is an Oscar’s favorite and so is Leonardo DiCaprio, but Jordan as twins Smoke and Stack in “Sinners” deserves an award for his shining performance doing double duty as twins Smoke and Stack in “Sinners.”
DiCaprio has an Oscar for his performance in 2015’s “The Revenant” and plenty of nominations; Chalamet has been nominated several times but hasn’t won yet. The last time a Black actor won was in 2022: Will Smith in “King Richard,” the same night he slapped Chris Rock for insulting Smith’s wife.
Jessie Buckley as Agnes and Joe Alwyn as Bartholomew in a scene from "Hamnet." (Photo Agata Grzybowska, courtesy of Focus Features)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”), Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”), Emma Stone (“Bugonia”)
Will win: Jessie Buckley
Michelle’s musings: I would love for an upset with Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Emma Stone was incomparable in “Bugonia,” and Kate Hudson, despite the cheesy, “Song Sung Blue” script also deserves an Oscar for her performance, but none of these will outsmart Shakespeare’s wife.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), Stellan SkarsgÃ¥rd (“Sentimental Value”)
Will Win: Sean Penn
Michelle’s musings: Delray Lindo deserves the statue for his portrayal as Delta Slim with a monologue in the film that’s unforgettable but Penn’s Steven J. Lockjaw has this one locked up.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”), Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”)
Will win: Teyana Taylor
Michelle’s musings: Taylor got the Golden Globe but Amy Madigan nabbed the SAG, so she may take this one home. I’d love to see Elle Fanning get the win for her portrayal of a famous American movie star in the Norwegian film “Sentimental Value,” one of my favorites of the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Michelle’s musings: While my pick is Ryan Coogler for “Sinners” and what a moment it would be since Black directors have won in other categories but never the award, Anderson has been winning awards left and right for another sprawling entry in his film canon.
The Oscars airs on ABC at 7 p.m. on Sunday, March 15, with Conan O'Brien as the host.
